The East Bay Tri-Valley industrial market — covering Livermore, Dublin, and Pleasanton — showed resilience in Q3 2024. Despite the typical summer slowdown, a handful of notable lease deals demonstrated that tenant demand for modern industrial space remains strong.
Vacancy & Absorption
- Vacancy in Tri-Valley industrial properties sits at 9.6%, down from 12.2% last quarter
- Over the past 12 months, the market recorded negative net absorption of 629,890 SF, reflecting slower tenant activity and some space coming back online
- While negative absorption is never ideal, the recent 286,000 SF lease by Prologis in Livermore to Imperial Dade shows that quality product still attracts large tenants
Owner insight: Even in a softer leasing environment, well-located, newer industrial assets remain competitive. Owners should focus on keeping properties upgraded and marketable to capture demand.
Rental Rates
- Average asking rents in the Tri-Valley climbed to $22.62/SF NNN, a slight increase from last quarter and nearly 3% higher year-over-year
- This stability shows that despite softer leasing, landlords are still holding the line on rates, especially for functional and modern space.
Owner insight: Rental rates are holding firm, but landlords may need to be more flexible with concessions (like free rent or TI packages) to keep occupancy strong.
Sales & Investment Market
- Sales volume slowed, which isn’t surprising given higher interest rates and uncertainty ahead of the upcoming election
- The average sale price remains stable at around $319/SF, with cap rates holding near 6.0%
- Smaller deals closed, such as the 10,097 SF sale at 6459 Brisa Street in Livermore for $307/SF, showing that private buyers are still active
Owner insight: Investors are cautious but still engaged. If you’re considering selling, well-leased, quality assets are still in demand, though pricing expectations should align with today’s higher cap rate environment.
Looking Ahead
The Tri-Valley market is expected to remain slow through Q4 as tenants and investors wait for clarity on interest rates and the election. However, strong long-term fundamentals — location, workforce access, and tenant base — make this submarket a strategic hold for owners.
🔑 Key Takeaways for Bay Area Industrial Owners
Well-located and modern buildings still draw tenants and investors.
Vacancy has ticked down, but absorption is still negative — keeping tenants engaged is critical.
Rents remain steady, but expect more negotiation on concessions.
Sales volume is muted, yet pricing per SF has held firm.
Sean Offers, SIOR, Principal – Lee & Associates East Bay
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